Mobility Matters | March 5th, 2025 | Episode 30

Matt Sherburne

Matt Sherburne

— 10 min read
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Mobility Matters | March 5th, 2025 | Episode 30
Photo by Jake Weirick / Unsplash

March 5, 2025 | Episode 30| 2,420 words ~10 minute read

All opinions expressed below are mine and not those of my employer, Shell Ventures.

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 Hi all,

After a short hiatus here’s your latest Mobility Matters. On the report front I would highly recommend the work from S&P as it confirms my previous bias (but is also just a good piece of work), the Contrary Ventures report is really good, and Cox and Arval come at this from a lot of internal data from big operations you don’t generally get access to.  It’s also worth thinking about the AV developments (broadly here - the GM announcement that was then overshadowed by the BYD announcement, the Waymo progression and what Lyft is now saying).  I guess what I'm saying is it’s been a busy few weeks.

Recent Reports

  • S&P Mobility has a good update on the broader EV market landscape. This below chart is one of those pictures that’s worth 1,000 words.  We need cheaper EVs to get back on a higher growth trajectory.
  • Cox Automotive published their latest quarterly insights (UK specific), it’s a good short read broken down into edible snippets.  Highly recommended.  I thought this breakdown of sales by the customer was really useful.
  • McKinsey has an outlook on private markets for 2025 - if you would like a dose of optimism this is the report for you. Most of that optimism is driven by the inflection you see in this chart and the expectation it’s the start of a trend.
  • Arval has a consulting arm, and they put out a report on BEV Myths, and I found two pieces of data pretty interesting/useful. This table of EV charging times, and their take on TCO (Hybrid is the worst? Even though it has lower maintenance and energy than ICE…fascinating)
  • Contrary Ventures are a smart team, and they put out their 2025 tech trends report that is really worth a read through.  I’m taking two of their slides here to bang on about a point I think is important to recognize, battery costs are coming down and energy density is exploding - what this means (or should mean) is we hit a natural limit for how “big” batteries need to be from a range perspective and we start to optimize them based on a natural range and then drive down costs by leveraging ever increasing energy density. This is how we get to mass market EV pricing. Go read the rest of the report, it’s very good.
  • No pull chart here, but the IEA puts out regular reports on the oil market and it’s a good thing to remember what all this electrification and new fuels are competing against.
  • Via ID and Dealroom collaborate annually on a report into the European Mobility startup market, and every year it’s a really good read through, and I’m not just saying that because my employer Shell Ventures makes the list of top mobility investors (but we do! Reach out if you have something we should look at!).  My key takeaway is that in mobility and in the EU, we are still facing the same hills from 2020/2021 that set some pretty unrealistic goals, and removing those 2024 was still a continuation of an upward trend on many (all?) the important stats.
  • ACEA has a quick whitepaper out on Heavy Duty decarbonisation and their policy recommendations - take it with a grain of salt given the source but an easy & quick read.
  • DNV has several country specific reports that they keep updated on an evergreen basis - they recently published their latest version of their outlook on Germany’s energy system.  These are pretty in depth and data-heavy, but also worth digging into for your specific niche. Here’s their view on energy demand in the transport sector:

Recent News

  • Reminiscent of the tie up between Uber and Lime, Bolt is now partnering with e-bike startup Forest to provide access to those in their app.
  • Do you ever read something and just think to yourself - is this real? Am I the crazy one here? That’s how I’m left feeling after reading this PR from Volvo talking about adding 300 km in a 10 minute charge.  
  • This from Understanding AI delves deep into the differences and similarities between the approaches to AV of the actual leader (Waymo) and the peoples champ (Tesla). Hint: they are a lot more similar than you would think given the differences in how they got to here.
  • Here’s a good interview between Elektrek and Stephanie Valdez Strteaty from the strategy team at Cox Automotive.
  • Back in May of ‘24 the UK Environmental Audit Committee (EAC) published a report on getting the UK to Net Zero Shipping.  The government has now had the opportunity to respond to that, and the EAC is…not happy with the lack of urgency on display. 
  • Toyota announced the development of a 3rd gen hydrogen fuel cell system in what is a stunning commitment in the face of overwhelming evidence. See chart below from the FT that I’ve previously shared (source).
  • Hyundai is going the other direction with reports they will unveil solid state battery tech in March.  Pro-tip: approach this with caution, the ratio of solid state battery announcements to solid state battery sales is kind of like dividing by zero.
  • I try to be leery of new reports that confirm my existing bias’, so this from Cargill’s decarb team saying wind assisted propulsion works, but is too costly is definitely a form of catnip for me.
  • Why do EVs depreciate faster than traditional cars? That’s the central question that LCP tries to answer here and it’s worth thinking about this, but also worth thinking about if that’s a good thing or bad thing for EV penetration (think: fleets fleets fleets, and worry about Hertz’ experience). It’s also a good excuse for me to plug Nat Bullard’s most recent presentation which you really should go read.

  • BMW’s head of technology was interviewed by Automotive News and I’m glad to say we are in total alignment - additional batteries to just keep extending range beyond 400-500 kilometers don’t make sense.  Instead once you reach that mark trading any efficiency gains for cost improvements is a much better trade-off.
  • At the same time BMW board member Jochim Goller was quoted in a pretty long article about their continued commitment to ICE, even in the face of growing EV and PHEV sales.
  • EREVs (extended range EVs) have been in the news quite a bit given the uptake of those and PHEVs, so I thought this article from McKinsey on their market impact was worth considering.
  • I wonder a bit about this ICCT working paper - are we struggling to improve aircraft performance because we haven’t set appropriate targets, or are we simply standing on the shoulders of giants who have pushed current design profiles to their limit?  Two ways to read a chart I guess…
  • DNV published a good look at all major regulatory actions and deadlines for GHG emissions in shipping.
  • Italian regulators are concerned that a broad swath of OEMs from BYD to Stellantis to Tesla have misled consumers on EV performance. 
  • I bang on here about EV entry price quite a bit, to the detriment of one of my other favorite pastimes: banging on about how payments at EV chargers are archaic and ineffective. Good to see Mastercard entering the fray with the everlasting and optimistic hope that it helps bring some sanity to the space.
  • Uber suing Doordash for playing fast and loose with the rules is, well it’s certainly a new look for the company that pioneered “Greyball”.
  • This one might be niche, but it works for me so I’m including it.  Cambria Private Capital published a blog post on the last set of earnings from US Motor Retail (read: dealer groups). The long story short here being that the market remains strong with new vehicle sales, after-sales services, and digital retailing - with used vehicles not really keeping up.
  • Well this is awkward. In the first quarterly report after GM shut down Cruise CEO Mary Barra said that on the back of significant subscriptions for their SuperCruise ADAS that “Within 5 years, we expect to approach about $2 billion in total annual revenue from Super Cruise.” That’s all well and good but then BYD came out and said their version is just going to be a standard offering, even on mass market vehicles. It’ll be a neat trick if GM can make $B’s in top line on a product others are giving away for free. Not for nothing though - the name “God’s Eye” for your AV program is a little bit on the nose.

Consolidation in Mobility

Longer form items

  • Maritime Executive has a long form piece on the decarbonization of shipping with a focus on the Nordics, covering tech, policy and a lot of things in between.
  • Tesla released a marketing video explaining the updates to the Model Y, and despite the fact that it’s pure marketing, it’s short and worth watching in the context of a redesign of their best selling vehicle in the face of some bad YoY sales comps. Are those comps due to people waiting for the new hotness? Or are some people falling out of love with the brand due to “exogenous” circumstances.  TBD but it’s my favorite story of 2025. (5 min watch)
  • 14 minute watch on how to build the next supersonic jet.
  • We are back deep into politics mixing vocally with a lot of what we talk about here - anyways, here’s Bill Gates on the topic. (12 minute watch)
  • In something I’m much more skeptical of - here’s a 4 minute watch from CNN on eVTOL.
  • If a company raises $1b to work on a hard problem, and then their CEO sits down for a long interview - I recommend listening because they might just know something you don’t. Here’s the Wayve CEO doing just that. (25 minute listen)

Thank you to Jerad, Matt, Rebecca, Sebastian, and Clement for introductions to founders and sharing interesting items for inclusion in this episode.

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