Mobility Matters | September 23rd, 2026 | Episode 34

September 23, 2026 | Episode 34 | 1803 words ~8 minute read

All opinions expressed below are mine and not those of my employer, Shell Ventures.

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Hi all,

Welcome to the latest Mobility Matters. A lot of good recent reports have come out, and some fun long form items as well, so I hope you have a cup of coffee and a bit of time. I would suggest the podcasts from The Energy Gang and S&P because the interviewees are both so knowledgeable. In the reports section I would definitely spend time with the PWC quarterly sales report, and the ICCT EV Transition Check.

Recent Reports

I think this quarterly report on EV sales from PWC is one of the must reads every three months. I appreciate that they put in the actual share of car park rather than just share of new car sales, and their focus on used EV sales is a healthy point of discussion.

EV battery diagnostics company Aviloo has a good white paper out using their internal data that gives some ranges on the state of health of various makes/models. I thought this was really interesting. They have the same charts at 50k and 100k.

ICCT has a new update to their EU EV Transition Check. The entire report is very good, and there is a lot of good data in there. I’m going to be lazy though and pull this chart because it’s the best visual I’ve seen on the country by country penetration. You should go read the whole thing.

A lot of the above reports on EV sales have been more of a look at demand and policy environment. Here’s ICCT looking at the same policy environment but the supply side of the equation and the manufacture of vehicles in the EU and their prevalence, drivetrain splits. I thought this chart they sort of bury is the interesting one that helps to compare the supply and demand balance.

In news that I hope will surprise no one, EVs are cheaper to drive than ICE, and the current trends on declining battery costs and high petrol/diesel costs only exacerbate the issue.
Not as many maritime folks here, but for those who are interested this report from Lloyds on the retrofit of carbon capture systems onto existing vessels is actually pretty good reading.
A theme I’ve been banging on about for a while is that China, the US and the EU are on three different trajectories in mobility and they will never unify. BCG has written a sector specific report with that same view on heavy duty electrification. I’m biased because it confirms my priors, but I do suggest a read. The three charts below really do tell the story.

Recent News

I genuinely don’t understand this offer from Tesla for people to own fleets of robotaxis. They have sort of bet the whole company on an autonomous and robotic future, so why would you give up a huge slice of what they claim to be high quality revenue just so save yourself a bit of balance sheet pain? The Tesla investor base seems immune to balance sheet pain! Maybe they think the revenue won’t materialize fast enough or at a high enough margin? Others do.
Speaking of Robotaxis, Travis Kalanick is making some noises about getting back into the game alongside Anthony Lewandowski (who sort of famously “borrowed” a bit of stuff from Waymo).
It’s at least a little funny when dockless bike operators such as Lime say they need “more parking” from municipalities in order to have their bikes stop getting impounded. Isn’t the whole point that the bikes aren’t docked?!?
“Entry level EV” and “$45,000 starting price” are interesting bedfellows, but thanks for trying Audi. But a $30k truck with a cool name? Thank you Ford!
China has unveiled their 5 year plan for NEVs, targeting 70% market share by 2030, and a significant penetration of AVs. You know, if they keep going at this rate, pretty soon folks are going to start thinking China’s serious about EV.
The IMO has, for a third time in a row, failed to come to any real conclusion for decarbonisation of shipping. We might need a new strategy.
You know that saying “we were promised flying cars and all we got was 200 characters”, well, for those so inclined Dutch company PAL-V has gotten some regulatory approvals to start building their exceptionally weird flying car.
This one is in the weeds a bit, but there is an ongoing case in the US around liability during freight activities that is going to throw the whole system into chaos. Long story short, if you get hired to carry a load, then subcontract that to another reputable player and then there’s an incident…where does the liability sit? CH Robinson is keen to find out.
On the other hand, if you’re a cartel boss and using the freight industry to move a bunch of cocaine…it’s a bit more obvious.
I like little parts of the economy that surprise you, this startup doing $2m in topline in year one selling ads on digital assets in the mobility space is genuinely cool. Basically an offline cookie.
Absolutely the weirdest article headline I’ve seen in a while. Sort of a WWJD combined with autonomous vehicles.
Somehow I missed this over the summer, but McKinsey has a great article on what makes for a competitive OEM these days; Software, Scale and Speed.

A lot of people would find this boring, but if you read this newsletter, I bet you are the kind of person who would enjoy a deep dive on transport and logistic M&A in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.
Sometimes a company does something that’s really smart and you have to stand back and give a little golf clap. This driver perks program from Samsara is one of those things, it’s bang on strategy and I’m pretty convinced it will be a massive success.
An interesting 2nd/3rd order effect of the rise of EV’s is a rise in M&A in upstream materials companies that have rare earth exposure.
BYD debuted a 44 ton eHGV at IAA in Hanover, with 1.5 MW charging that can take 20-80% in about as much time as a bathroom break. Very cool.
I was maybe harsh on Einride in the last episode, but it’s great to see Einride on the road in Germany, with an AV eHGV.
Really blunt article from Reuters on how the Iran war has impacted auto plant build out of both brownfield and greenfield sites.
Fleetcor got themselves in a heap of trouble with the FTC and it cost them $100m to find their way out.
This article from Bloomberg was really well done on Hyundai’s efforts to be relevant in AV. Lot’s of work to be done though.
As much as I may want to avoid politics, the calls for a diesel export ban in the US are too topical not to. I’d write a screed, but this one is better than what I’d write and bang on about how a diesel ban would be bad, and it would be bad for the US.

Consolidation in Mobility

The Uber takeover of Delivery Hero got support from the DH board, now it's up to shareholders and regulators.
Hard to not note the big reduction in workforces recently announced at JLR (4k employees), but more so the ones at VW, what was originally 50k jobs jumping to 100k is an enormous shift, especially from a board that is effectively controlled by a combination of Union reps and the government of Lower Saxony. To add insult to injury, VW is also being taken out of THE blue chip European stock index.
Meanwhile, autonomous vehicle also-ran May Mobility has filed to go public via a SPAC, making everyone think it’s 2021 again.
This is a very weird transaction, given the scale involved.
Copart is buying ACV, and strategically it makes an enormous amount of sense. Copart is a regular player in M&A and knows how to integrate, but this is bigger than their usual meal and it’s also software. Feels like potentially a big win, but far from a sure thing.
Navajo Expedited is going to private equity, continuing a long trend in 3PL.
I like these vertical integration acquisitions like Lufthansa buying a cargo terminal operator. They aren’t always smart, but they are always interesting.
Speaking of airlines… airBaltic has filed for chapter 11, and funnily enough, Lufthansa owns about 10% of the equity here. You win some, you lose some I guess.
Tata Motors is all set to close on Iveco in a deal worth €3.8b
Archer and Beta, two of the more reputable VTOL companies, are partnering up on an infrastructure build out plan. The plan makes sense, but I’ll believe 200+ vertiports exist when I can see them.
The rumor mill is swirling about VW's AV play MOIA, and given the cost cutting measures discussed above, one has to wonder whether they are built to be a competitor in the AV development space, especially with the struggles CARIAD went through.

Longer form items

For my money @EngineeringwithRosie on YouTube is one of the absolute best communicators in the clean energy space. Here’s a great example with her talking about the death of the duck curve. (4 minute watch)
FreightWaves has become another good youtube channel for mobility nerds, this one on Autonomous Trucking is a good example of their work and worth the time. (18 minute watch)
I found this podcast from Cleaning Up to be thought provoking, even if wrong in some parts (we are saying Ford took a bailout now?). The rest of the listen is interesting, especially the thoughts on new, smaller, form factor vehicles and their best applications. (1 hr listen)
The grid is a big topic, so I’m stretching my self-imposed mobility mandate to include this one here from The Energy Gang who interviewed Stacey Dore, an exec at Vistra. You will learn something, you will be surprised by what you learn, and you will be very impressed with Mrs. Dore. (1 hr 20 min listen)
Another one in that same vein is this interview of lithium industry veteran Joe Lowry. I defy you to not learn something.
McKinsey published a podcast on OEM warranty implications and strategies, which is a lot bigger of an issue than people might ordinarily think. (19 minute listen)