Mobility Matters | December 27, 2024 | Archive Episode 26

Hi all,

Welcome to this month’s Mobility Matters; only one episode this month as the holiday season did the things to my calendar that the holiday season normally does. Hopefully everyone has had a great break thus far and is recharging for the New Year.  In this episode I would highly recommend reading through and thinking about the 3 veritably huge transaction and people moves in the Consolidation section at Continental, FedEx and Stellantis.  Outside of that the various bits of news and output from Waymo is really starting to feel like the drips are turning into a constant flow.

 Recent Reports:

• Waymo has put out some peer reviewed research in conjunction with Swiss Re comparing Waymo’s performance vs the Swiss Re database of liability claims and you can see how much better the Waymo AV performs below, using their data from 25 million miles without someone in the driver seat. It’ll be great when we can shift the dotted box on the second image slowly (quickly?) to the right.

• Global Maritime Forum has updated their views on green shipping lanes with the progress made thus far; bottom line is that 18 new ones (40% YoY growth), but the pipeline for new lanes is shrinking due to economic feasibility and lack of policy incentives.  High level infographic that covers the summary below:

• PWC has some timely work out on early stage climate tech investment covering over $600B in investments across 52k deals. Ultimately climate tech seems to be more stable than “just” tech, but it’s not immune from the slowdown the entire sector has seen since the halcyon days of 2021/2022.  Also interesting is this persistent gap between total emissions and total funding (due in large part to market fundamentals).

• If your work has anything to do with decarbonizing any part of road transport in the UK, I’d highly recommend reading this new report from Zemo on a Delivery Roadmap for Net Zero Transport in the UK; it’s right on a lot of policy suggestions and technical options.
• The latest version of the EPA Automotive Trends Report (2024) is out, and always worth going through at least the exec summary - the story however is told in this one set of charts.

• For the last few years the big story in shipping has been the activation of the EU ETS, but with the FuelEU Maritime requirements going active in 2025, this should no longer take a second seat.  Here’s an in depth view of the commercial implications from DNV. 

Recent News

• I’ve said this previously, but GM throwing in the towel on Cruise after several billion dollars have been thrown at the project is a stunning admission.  Either GM is saying they can’t see a pathway to actually winning in the AV market (my bet) or they are saying the strategy was wrong in the first place (possible, but wow what an expensive mistake).
• Not to be outdone with stunning end of year revelations, Honda and Nissan have both confirmed they are in talks to effect a merger, which…wow. In the last missive i said the following:

Let's first say that this is on the earlier side of speculation, but the potential for Nissan to go bankrupt inside of a year is a stunning declaration.  Carlos Ghosn must be livid.

So seeing this quote from CG from Bloomberg TV is…something: “It’s a desperate move…It’s not a pragmatic deal because frankly, the synergies between the two companies are difficult to find.”

• Waymo is going international, first stop: Tokyo.  Interesting choice of a first city given it's a city with robust public transportation infrastructure.  Not something one can really say about Phoenix, SF, LA, etc where Waymo is already operating.  Should make for some interesting data points. (They also announced an expansion to Miami, but how amazing is it that actual robot cars going from city to city has become…almost commonplace?)
• In more AV news, the NHTSA has put out a framework for AVs without necessarily having manual control devices (e.g. steering wheels, pedals, etc…), there is some nuance here, and given the Zoox story from our last note it’s worth reading up on this a bit more.
• Ebay Motors never really got traction (but wasn't a total disaster!), so it's at least a little bit interesting that Amazon is now selling cars online. Uniquely this is more about being the online presence of your local Hyundai dealer as opposed to being a force in the used car marketplace, so quite a different offering, and probably more comparable to what Carwow has offered to dealers/customers in the UK.
• I’ve previously been critical of the Jaguar rebrand, and now they have put out a concept car (the Type 00) to go along with it and…I don’t hate it?  I mean an EV that is over 5 meters long is insane and will not be functional so they’ll never build it, but it looks cool? Like some kind of combo between old muscle cars and a Bugatti.
• Oh nothing, just $7.5B from the DOE loan program to help fund battery cell and module manufacturing in the US. Let’s hope this goes better than Northstar or BritishVolt.
• If you’re in the EV industry it's worth contemplating why a mainstream outlet like The Verge would cover something as boring as updated Plug and Charge standards for the EV charging industry.  Spoiler alert: most CPOs have reliability statistics that are so dreadful that people are grasping at straws for anything to solve them.
• EVgo and GM announced they have passed 2,000 DCFC stalls in the US, an update on their partnership that was originally announced in 2020
• The biggest story from last episode was the collapse of Northvolt, having at least a little bit of space to think about it there are several lookbacks now out there, and this one from The Economist is good reading.
• Norway recorded 94% of new car sales in October as EVs, they are well on their way to not having new ICE vehicles enter the car parc by 2025, half a decade ahead of aspirational goals of other countries.  Sure, there are some real peculiarities around that market that can’t be replicated elsewhere, but they have unique challenges as well and in spite of that the real difference is the commitment. 
• A Waymo engineer posted this unreal video of a Waymo vehicle avoiding a pedestrian who effectively falls off an e-scooter directly in front of the vehicle. This is amazing stuff and, in this case, helped to save someone’s life.
• The CATL CEO is out with a couple of spicy quotes - the first about how Tesla’s 4860 cell is just functionally not a credible competitor, and the second around their opinion of Northvolt during their fall from grace.
• Hyundai reported huge US numbers for November. One has to wonder if this is due to the threat of subsidies disappearing in the new administration. EV sales are up 70% year-on-year (Hybrids up a whopping 114%). Hyundai hypes Nov as the best selling month for the Ioniq 5 (around 5k sales), with the EV up 30% year-to-date. Also impressive Tucson PHEV sales.
  • Then again, maybe it’s not due to some US specific items?  The UK is reporting similar industry stats.
• Fastned announced a new partnership with a TfL subsidiary to bring up to 25 new EV charging hubs to London
• Will Trump cancel the USPS effort to electrify its fleet? I don’t know.  As an aside, we should be more willing to say those three words, especially as we see much more unpredictability in the near future.
• Dodge put out a new ad for their EV Charger (which honestly, looks like a pretty cool ride), but man…there were definitely some choices behind this ad that I would have probably not made. Maybe that’s why I’m not in marketing? 

 Consolidation in Mobility

• Continental is making some serious moves, proposing to spin off (subject to shareholder approval) their automotive segment, making two independent listed entities.  The breakdown below is helpful to understand the future set up.  Not every day that someone spins off a $20B revenue business so it’s worth thinking through the strategic rationale behind this.

• In some shocking news, one of the auto industry’s most recognizable leaders is stepping aside as Carlos Tavares has announced he will leave Stellantis in the first half of next year.
• And for a third big piece of news to round out the year, FedEx has decided to split off their freight business in a similar transaction to Continental where it’ll end up with two independent listed entities (Freight is a ±$10B topline business for FedEx).  See below for the headline number; but what a way for a tumultuous 2024 to end for the freight industry in general.

• JustEat is delisting from the London Stock Exchange, keeping their Dutch primary listing going forward in a cost cutting effort
• Here’s something you don’t see everyday; a big public transit going public via IPO.  Tokyo Metro did just that, and I’d be lying if I said I wouldn’t be interested to see some of their new public filings
• eVTOL company Joby has raised $300m in a shelf offering, this in addition to some other previously announced 9 digit raises to support a notional 2025 commercial launch.  Faithful reader, I remain skeptical of the entire enterprise.
• In news that’s somewhat smaller than the industry shaking Stellantis, Continental and FedEx shockers, Fuuse has acquired Everyday EV to bolster their EV driver support capabilities. While a smaller transaction - the entire space around EV driver support is very interesting, and with the capabilities of LLMs it’s one that is poised for a significant change in tactics from the last 5 years.
• Cart.com, a Houston-based startup providing end-to-end e-commerce services including logistics, has acquired OceanX from Guthy Renker.

 Longer form items

• Sifted interviewed Markus Villig, the founder CEO of Bolt, who spoke on everything from AV deployments to their continued investment in Micromobility.  I’ve got a lot of time for this team, they are one of the few Western competitors to Uber that are truly formidable. (7 minute read)
• Here’s an interesting podcast on the underlying economics of highway signs of all things… (20 minute listen)
• Space is a mobility topic, right?  Here’s Baillie Gifford’s analyst talking through the business of Space X.
• This is much less mobility related, but this deep dive from The Verge (pun intended) into the undersea cables that make up the backbone of the internet is a really fun read with great interactive graphics.

 Additional Homework

This is a new section I’m trying out with things that are note really mobility related, but interesting enough to plug for further reading.  We’ll see if this gains enough traction to become a recurring section going forward, if you have thoughts please share them.

• This is much less mobility related, but this deep dive from The Verge (pun intended) into the undersea cables that make up the backbone of the internet is a really fun read with great interactive graphics.
• A few enterprising folks found some interesting behaviours from ChatGPT when you requested it to use specific names.  TechCrunch has a good read on the topic.