Mobility Matters | January 10, 2025 | Episode 27

January 10th, 2025 | Episode 01 | 1,650 words ~8 minute read

All opinions expressed below are mine and not those of my employer, Shell Ventures.

 Hi all,

Welcome to your first version of this newsletter in 2025!  I trust everyone had a good break and is back with batteries recharged.  Lot’s to go over in this report, but to start with, if you want to receive this in your inbox you now can!  Sign up here.

For this version, I’d call peoples attention to the reports from Wartsila and Sightline/HSBC as more general topics, and the podcast from Lloyd’s is honestly striking in how spicy it gets. As always, if you have comments or suggestions my inbox is ever open, and if you know startups/founders I should get to know, please reach out!

Recent Reports

• Cox Automotive has put out their 2025 outlook with these three top headlines:
  • A positive economic outlook for 2025, with new-vehicle sales expected to reach 16.3 million units, a 3% increase from 2024. 
  • Electrified vehicle sales will grow further in the year ahead, accounting for one out of every four vehicles sold in 2025. 
  • Vehicle affordability is expected to improve in 2025, with expanding credit availability and declining auto loan rates. 
• Given the amount of CAPEX that needs to be put to work to shift the maritime sector to a sustainable pathway this work from Standard Chartered on both the financing options available and the general financial health of the sector is time well spent. Long story short from the graph below - the answer is debt, and quite a bit of it.

• The FAA pushed out a safety and certification roadmap for hydrogen planes, and it’s a really sober look at the hurdles that need to be overcome to certify H2 (gaseous or fuel cell) for flight. 26 pages, but if you’re an amateur who has interest, read pages 17-19 for the big frictions involved.
• I always like when companies with significant engineering expertise weigh in on the energy transition, so Wartsila’s Crossroads to Net Zero was a bit of catnip for me, and the conclusions also speak to the realist in me. See below for their view on a balanced pathway to net zero.

• Sightline climate and HSBC joined up to publish on the capital stack for climate tech. It’s not short, but if you’re in clean tech it’s a must read. Highlights below if you’re just curious.

• Given some of the news below around OEM/Labor tussles, job losses in the tier 1 and 2  value chain, and the ever looming threat of Chinese OEMs entering Western markets, this is a timely piece of work from (an admittedly partisan) EPP on how to solve for competitiveness of the European automotive industry. It presents quite a different view of things than we may normally hear/read.
• In more optimistic news, BCG thinks that the maritime sector is well positioned to drive carbon capture forward. I had never really thought of cross border carbon capture creating a new arbitrage opportunity, but once you say it…it does make sense. Anyway this cost analysis was interesting.

• ING put out some work on the slow recovery of EU road haulage, and yeah, when you see it in charts it’s pretty striking.

• The same folks also did some additional work on an EU truck and trailer market outlook.  It’s got a lot of good resources, but the timeline below of regulatory roll-outs was really helpful to me.

• PWC crunched the numbers on software defined vehicles (as well as some of the strategic choices that need to be made), and while I don’t hink this will really surprise a lot of people who are interested enough to read a newsletter like this, seeing the numbers is always helpful.

• Ricardo and T&E have some opinions on how to best fund the transitions of aviation and shipping.  Those opinions are 155 pages long, but they boil down to - use levy’s on other fossil based fuels to support these sectoral transitions.

Recent News

• One of the biggest pieces of news recently has to be VW getting their labor deal done with IG Metall in Germany.  No plant closures, but staff cuts of up to 35k across Germany shows how different the landscape is going to be in the very near future for OEMs, Labor and politicians alike.
• Schmidt Automotive Research has the latest sales data out for Europe, showing a stark drop in Germany and a somewhat more muted one in France putting the UK in pole position for EV sales. The German dip looks like several cyclical cycles matching up to each other, but still quite notable.  As an aside, these guys do really good work, if you care about automotive you should know them.

• A little bit more on the above, you can see the detailed breakdown of the UK data from SMMT here.
• As the calendar has rolled over into 2025, the UK SAF Mandate has come into effect, as reminder this requires:
  • The SAF Mandate starts in 2025 at 2% of total UK jet fuel demand, increasing linearly to 10% in 2030 and then to 22% in 2040.
  • From 2040, the obligation will remain at 22% of total UK jet fuel demand until there is greater certainty regarding SAF supply.
• The CEO of XPeng predicted a resumption of a price war in his company-wide 2025 email.  The prospect of even fitter Chinese OEMs must be terrifying to Detroit and Munich.
• I wouldn’t sleep on the job impacts through the vehicle supply chain that are outside of OEMs as a part of the EV transition and OEMs responding by bringing some things in house.  These announcements from Bosch, Continental and others are the beginning, not the end.
• CES just wrapped up, so it's time for the annual check-in with Sony and Honda on their Afeela EV... Wait, it starts at $90k? I-Feel-A decided lack of demand for something like this. (I'll show myself out 🚪)
• Remember Ford offering a free home charger and installation?  They have extended the offer through Q1.
• The UK has launched a consultation to shape the 2030 petrol and diesel car phase-out - the link is here for those wishing to contribute.
• Hertz is apparently reaching out to customers who are in the middle of renting an EV to see if they just want to buy it. Renting an EV for a short period of time has been a good way to test if it fits your lifestyle, so it’s not the craziest thing I’ve heard of, but I’d be surprised if there’s a lot of uptake here, even if the prices are pretty cheap.
• CleanTechnica reports on BNEF work that lets some of the air out of the green hydrogen bubble.
• More labor news, this time it’s Teamsters vs Amazon.
• This is a fun read of new EVs expected in 2025 with nice glossy pictures.
• The always smart people at T&E have a detailed look at all the combustion engines that don’t drive trucks or cars.  It’s a bit of a hidden segment, but non-road mobile machinery is a massive contributor to CO2 emissions, and one that might be a lot easier to transition than shipping or aviation.
• When cars turn into computers on wheels, they inherit not just the traditional problems cars have, but all the problems computers have.  Volkswagen found this out the hard way when they exposed incredibly detailed information on 800,000 vehicles, showing which of us are at the gym and who’s at McDonald’s. Just in time for New Years resolutions I guess.
• Used car seller Carvana got whacked with a detailed look at their financials by famed short seller Hindenberg (the team that found out NIkola was pushing trucks downhill rather than actually driving them).
• Final rules are out for 45V, the Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit. Here are a few smart reviews.  And yes, I did link to three law firms for this, which is instructive in and of itself.

Consolidation in Mobility

• CATL is planning an IPO in Hong Kong, this is a secondary listing to their Shenzhen listing. One wonders what impact the US governments recent blacklisting will have.
• Hyzon is shutting down in the latest confirmation that the SPAC boom of ‘20-’22 was very much “not a good thing”
• Digital freight broker Fura acquires Pinwheel Logistics
• Canoo has placed people on forced leave in what is likely a precursor to shutting down.
• eVTOL player Volocopter, who had raised several hundred million dollars, is going into administration.
• Dutch E-cargo bike company Cargoroo is shutting down.
• Eco-movement has bought up the assets from the now defunct EVA Global.
• It seems like better news that NXP has bought TTTech, but it must be gut wrenching to sell for that much money at only a 2x markup from total capital raised.

`Longer form items

• Here’s Lloyds List’s podcast with their 2025 outlook, and it’s pretty spicy.  To hear an institution as respected as this suggest that it’s within the realm of possible that the IMO could become irrelevant is surprising to say the least.  (22 minute listen)
• The WSJ reports on trends driving US buyers to smaller vehicles. (13 minute listen)
• ICCT video on pathways for India to increase EV charging infrastructure roll-out. (3 minute watch)
• Ex-NHTSA autonomy expert MIssy Cummings was interviewed on all things AV.  It’s a good listen as a counterweight to the good PR most companies are presenting. (44 minute listen)
• Want to see an electric and autonomous loader at work in an active mine? I thought so. (3 minute watch)

Links from the group chat

Think of this as the section for things that aren’t mobility related, but if we were in a group text these are the links I would have sent you to read.

• JPMorgan has put out a 2025 outlook that is somehow a fun read. I know given the source you won’t believe me, but trust me, this is good stuff.
• The engineers at NASA somehow figured out how to get a probe to survive absolutely insane heat in an effort to better understand the sun.
• I’m wondering if this 
• I’m assuming everyone already reads XKCD, but if not you should start.  Here’s a good example as to why:

• BNEF founder Michael Liebriech penned an essay on the intersection of Gen AI and power that you should know about.
• It says something about cars today that a website like this even needs to exist to tell people what their cars can and cannot do.