Mobility Matters |November 14, 2024 | Archive Episode 24

Hi all,

A thing I've been doing internally for a while now is collating up a bit of relevant information on the world of mobility from air, sea and land and sharing it on a regular basis. A question I've got is…is it worth sharing this stuff to a wider audience?  That's sort of up to you, so let me know if this is something that you'd be interested in seeing more of (I typically do 2 a month, if you're wondering about frequency). A reminder that the opinions here are all mine, and not those of my employer.

 And with that, welcome to the latest edition of Mobility Matters - several themes throughout this one, including: affordable EVs coming, continuing the drumbeat of the overall theme of the transition vs Paris goals, and a juxtaposition of lots of progress being made while at the same time not nearly enough happening fast enough. I'd also recommend the longer form item with the interview of the GM SVP of software if you can spare the hour+, and there are two very long reports in here (one from McKinsey and one from IEA) where certain subsections are more than worth your time.

 As always, welcome to the new readers, if you have been forwarded this note and want to be added to the distribution list you can sign up with a quick email to me.

Recent Reports:

• I thought the transport section of this IEA report on Energy Efficiency was interesting in how it identifies financing as a key part of how to increase efficiency.  The underlying point being that just by moving to EV from ICE you increase efficiency and carbon footprint so much that any sort of financing that helps speed that up is a benefit.
• Also from the IEA was a new report on energy technologies that will take us through the transition; fair warning though - this one is long at almost 600 pages so I haven't read the whole thing because I have a day job.  What I did find interesting though as the section on Shipping (only 60 pages!) - worth a read through, and while one chart can't convey 60 pages, this one helps frame it up:

• Yet another flagship annual report on the overall energy market, this time from Rystad Energy.  Key takeaways here: 1) don't sleep on how important energy efficiency will be to the transition , 2) India, Southeast Asia and China will drive the success, a lot of the EU and NA contributions are baked in, but more importantly even though uptake of transition tech has been fast, it's not even close to fast enough and most folks are not even modeling 1.5 C anymore, as it's just unrealistic.

• Wood Mac Also came out with a 2024 report on Energy Transition, the headline statement being "without doubling annual investments, then net zero by 2050 is in doubt".  I'd update that and make it a bit more pessimistic if I was the author.  I'd especially note the EV share in the scenarios described below, because that's not the typical number we see which is share of new registrations, this is share of total car park which is nowhere near the trajectory needed for this:

• PWC has summarized Q3 '24 EV sales and it's a decent data driven look at things that they put out fairly regularly, so might be one to keep an eye out for (on a quarterly lag).  This pull image tells me the hybrid effect is real and sustained.

• The same folks also put out a report on HD BEV trucks, and I thought the below infographic was really instructive in terms of duty cycle needs from the customer lens.

• I missed this previously, but a September report from Lloyds on the use of AI in shipping is a good primer on how some of this stuff is really hitting the bottom line; spoiler alert it's not LLMs.
• BCG put out some new work on EV Charging and specifically the software market that supports it.  A good read on a challenged sector with a great title (Survival of the Fittest) that's maybe a bit on the nose.  For my money this split of the software market sizes is a good overview, but I'd caution that this is definitely "consultant math" as opposed to real math. I'm a firm believer that the eMSP market will struggle to gain an almost 30% CAGR.

• Here's an interesting piece of work called the "missing manual for scaling climate tech".  An aggregation of advice from successful founders and investors, this is a good read through. (Also if you do any of these things and make a company, toss me a pitch deck!)
• Here's a sobering report from ECIU that brackets the EV opportunity to the UK economy as either a positive £16B or a negative £34B…which is…quite a range.
• McKinsey has a (long) report out on the next areas of competition, and while the whole thing is over 200 pages, there are subsections on AV, EV, batteries and urban air mobility that you can zoom in on and are worth a read.
• Gridserve has put out a second report on eHGV implementation for a fleet that started racking up miles in May of 2024.  Some interesting takeaways here on everything from infrastructure access and site design to fleet operations, payload and day to day obstacles.

 Recent News

• There's been a flurry of AV news recently, so this might have gotten lost in all that: Zoox (owned by Amazon since they bought it a few years back) has deployed a bi-directional purpose built robotaxi onto the streets of San Francisco, their third city to go live.  Is it legal though? I'm not entirely sure and it sounds like the NHTSA is also still deciding.  Such a different form factor is interesting to watch, as are the very different business models employed by the leader (Waymo with 150k rides and 1m miles a week of actually driverless) and laggard (Tesla)
• I've long been banging the drum that cheaper EV prices are the way to the mass market, and this projection from Goldman on declining battery prices is great news on that front.

• On the same note, the price of used EVs are also falling, which sounds great but will have some complex effects on new car buying decisions as well since those buyers need to eat the depreciation.  Must be a bit of a trend, as The Information also had a piece on how the new EV is "good enough", and while I don't like the phrasing, I do like the outcome.

• The new UK government published their 10 year Industrial Strategy Plan, and unsurprisingly clean energy is one of the 8 sectors targeted for hypergrowth.  The proof will be in the pudding but at least right now the words seem to be the right ones.  A good summary is available here from Tech UK.
• Some interesting updates on US EV and EV infrastructure from Bloomberg - a couple of pull charts included below but the full note is worth a read.

• VW and Rivian came out with a bit more news on the big JV that they previously announced.
• One less hurdle in the way of new urban air mobility as the FAA has clarified it's final rules.  You can continue to color me skeptical, but open to be convinced on the topic, and more things like this news from Archer on vehicle sales might be what it takes to become a believer.
• Bloomberg had a good note out on the 2024 performance of EV OEMs in China, and that far right column is stunning.

 Consolidation in Mobility

• Yelp bought RepaiPal, which…I guess makes sense?
• Siemens has bought Altair for $10B(!) to move into automotive software space
• Volvo has taken over control and ownership of the previous JV they had with Northvolt after the latter failed to meet their financial obligations.
• Boeing is potentially selling their space business, interesting in light of all the struggles they have had in terms of manufacturing, labor, and safety recently.
• DNV acquired CyberOwl in a sign that cyber security is becoming (has already become?) a key part of the shipping sector.
• Lloyds bought Ocean Technologies, in yet more digital consolidation in the shipping sector.
• Canoo is losing executives and co-founders and downsizing at the same time.
• Just Eat has sold GrubHub for $650m, which sounds like a lot until you remember they bought it for over $7B.

 Longer form items

• A big topic in vehicles today is the infotainment system, so this interview with the SVP of software at GM talking about just why they are ditching car play is a god listen. (~75 minutes)
• McKinsey interviewed Rolls Royce CEO Tufan Erginbilgic (~25 minutes)