Mobility Matters | November 28, 2024 | Archive Episode 25

Note: The opinions expressed here are mine, not those of my employer

Hi all,

There was enough traction last time to likely make this more of a regular thing, so I'll try and keep putting it here but may also revert to a more formal one that can show up in your inboxes (reminder - these are my opinions, not my employers).  This time we have a Thanksgiving edition for our US based colleagues who I hope are tucking into a feast with family and friends on what is my favorite holiday, and hopefully don't get to reading this until Monday.  For this version I'd call out the Roland Berger report for the clever rebranding of CASE to PACE as well as the Economist article on the cost of the energy transition and the linked companion piece are all well worth your time and fairly quick reads.  I'm not sure if most of you pay close attention to the Consolidation section, but the rumors on Nissan are pretty striking and worth thinking through the potential impacts of such a failure.

 Recent Reports:

• Zemo has put out the second phase of a report on refrigerated and van transport and the emissions that come with those auxiliary loads. Bottom line is that these non-road mobile machinery are really un-regulated, really dirty (CO2 yes, but also NOX/SOX and some really disturbing PM numbers). Here's a handy chart that shows how much better it would be if those TRUs were not run on diesel.

• The Intelligence unit at The Economist has put out an Automotive Outlook for 2025, with special attention to the trade barriers that have already been erected and some consideration for what else may be to come.  Largely positive on the industry in general, and EV specifically, the main conclusions are below but it's also a pretty quick read and the details/nuance are good to dig into.

• Not to be outdone, Roland Berger has their Automotive Outlook 2040 out as well.  I like how they have changed CASE (connected, autonomous, shared and electric) to PACE (polarized, autonomous, connected and electric).  It feels like a much more accurate position - for more on the death of sharing (or at least a more modest position) see the consolidation section below.  No pull chart from this one, if you're in the space you should really read the whole thing, it's only 25 pages and it's well done.
• I thought this was a good read on the state of the current system within maritime as Lloyds goes through marine fuel quality in H1'24.  It's a good read, and for those who aren't product quality experts the case studies give glimpses into how important on-spec fuel is (and how costly it is when it isn't). 
• I don't normally include academic articles here, but this one comes with a pile of open source data from Fraunhofer who has created a methodology for identifying the right places to put charging for long haul HGV needs in Europe.  Using their method this is an instructive output on origin to destination (OD) autonomy that you need to build for.

• VC firm Atomico puts out an annual report on the State of European Tech that I think of as a must read, it's big and broad and deep so it's hard to get one chart that conveys everything but the story here is one of sustained growth and a real shift from the early 2000's to an ecosystem that is mature and thriving, despite what you'll read later in this note about Northvolt and what you read in the last one about Lilium.  This 10x in investment is a great barometer of that and for those interested should prod you to go to the source for more.

Recent News

• What to say about Northvolt? From the darling of Europe’s politicians and tech scene giving fireside chats at COP events to bankruptcy and a predictable gnashing of teeth as to who is at fault. For me this is a good proof point of a few things - first is that while we love a good “company on the rise story” the only thing we like more is a “fall from grace”, and second that building hardware and manufacturing businesses remains hard.  I hope this doesn’t discourage more founders from trying. 
• This closure of the UK National Chargepoint Registry sounds gloomy, but is done so because now there are standards for open sharing of basic information like location, real-time availability, connector types, and payment methods.  This is a good step forward for the industry.
• GM is offering free night charging in Texas in a partnership with Reliant Energy.  Let's not forget the previously noted free home charger/install offer from Ford, OEMs are pushing into this space and trying to see what works given the high percentage of charging that will be done at home and overnight.
• Thought provoking article from the NYT on automation, focusing on warehouse robotics.  I thought this from DHL CIO was an interesting take from a big customer on humanoid robots, whereas Amazon says that their latest warehouses with purpose built robotics process packages 25% faster and 25% cheaper. I'm not sure the case for the Rosey the Robot is an economic one.

• Interesting case study from Cenex around a Fleet Decarbonisation Model for specialist HGVs (think garbage trucks or other job-specific on-road vehicles), the main conclusions below:

• Daimler picked up a big chunk of EU money to support the deployment of 100 H2 fuel cell HGVs. I've previously been clear on my skepticism that H2 will be more economic than EV even for the HD on-road sector given the huge supply chains that are built out already, so it'll be good to see what the results of this are and to see if those priors need updating.  When thinking through H2 the hydrogen ladder that Michael Liebreich came up with is always a good place to start.

• Rystad has some new work out analyzing IOC bets on bio-fuels, and the numbers are pretty striking in the aggregate, and the tilt towards SAF is probably best explained by end product value and difficulty to decarbonize the target sectors.

• This article from The Economist on the price of the energy transition (cheaper than you think, they say with a wink) is definitely worth a read, and if I can shamelessly plug someone else's work this post from Shell VP of Strategy Laszlo Varro is worth reading after you've gone through the original article.
• I imagine many of those reading this are like me in that the details of who provides the enterprise SaaS to help retailers and grocers manage their supply chains is not what you spend your morning coffee pondering; but the recent cyber attack on Blue Yonder is having some big ongoing effects that show how these hidden businesses make the global economy work.  Or not, as the case may be.
• It may just be me, but I find the legal precedents that are being set around autonomous driving and who is at fault really fascinating.  This from Oregon about a Tesla driver suing Tesla for an accident that happened while the vehicle was running on self driving is a good test to follow to see who ends up with the ultimate liability here.
• Cox forecasting a strong end of 2024 for EV sales as consumers rush to buy before tax credits evaporate.  An interesting phenomenon that happens after every US election where consumers go and buy the thing they think will raise in price or go away based on the blue-ish/reddish tint of the incoming administration. Now I definitely buy into the ethos that "the US consumer is undefeated" but they do tend to get this behavior a little wrong.
• Notable that California Governor Gavin Newsom has promised to backstop the $7,500 tax credit in the state if the federal version of that goes away (with a potential carve out for high market share OEMs to not receive it [ahem…Tesla]).  This may not seem like a big deal, but as this chart from Pitchbook helpfully shows; California IS the market for electric vehicles in the US.

Consolidation in Mobility

• Let's first say that this is on the earlier side of speculation, but the potential for Nissan to go bankrupt inside of a year is a stunning declaration.  Carlos Ghosn must be livid.
• Ford is cutting 4,000 jobs at EU plants as a part of its effort to be more cost effective in the face of pressure from Chinese rivals.
• Pony has established their pricing for their IPO, and the days of low float/high priced IPOs aren’t back, but they are at least peeking over the hedges to check if the coast is clear.
• Bolt, the Estonian based competitor to Uber, has announced a €2B revenue year, helpful news in light of a planned 2025 IPO
• Gig Car Share has shuttered.
• More trouble in eVTOL as Vertical Aerospace has had to enter into a pretty tough debt-to-equity swap with Mudrick.

 Longer form items

• In what I can only describe as a fashion crime, one of my favorite OEM brands has made some significant changes to their look and feel.  It’s worth going down the rabbit hole on JLRs new branding.
• Good podcast from DNV on the impacts of the upcoming FuelEU Maritime regulations; with the bottom line being that with all the prep the industry has done for other recently introduced refs, this one has somehow fallen under the radar. (15 minutes)
• Motortrend had some BNEF folks on their YouTube channel to talk about Electric Vehicles in America. (~26 minutes)
• The Verge had a podcast going over the implications of Trump as the next US President for electric vehicles, Tesla, and the ever-present Elon Musk. (36 minutes)